One of the trickiest challenges for any honest investor is trying to work out whether they are lucky or smart. Is their successful trading strategy the equivalent of a coin toss coming up heads five times in a row? Or is it the result of superior insight or execution? Human nature (and fee structures) being what they are, most investors prefer the latter explanation. In truth, it is often hard to tell.
对于任何诚实的投资者来说，最棘手的挑战之一，就是要弄清楚自己的成功究竟是源于运气，还是源于智慧。他们的成功交易策略，是不是就像连续五次抛硬币都正面朝上一样纯属偶然？还是说，这是卓越洞察力或执行力的结果？受人性（以及收费结构）的影响，大多数投资者更愿意相信后者。事实上，这两者往往难以分辨。
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