After more than a year of unimaginable death and destruction in the Middle East, there is finally a moment of hope. At 4am local time on Wednesday, a US-brokered ceasefire came into effect to halt the war between Israel and Lebanese militant group Hizbollah. The agreement — which envisages Hizbollah pulling back from Lebanon’s southern border, and invading Israeli forces withdrawing and ending a relentless bombing campaign — is fragile and will face myriad tests.
The responsibility for ensuring that Hizbollah abides by the terms rests with Lebanon’s government, its army and UN peacekeepers, none of which have in the past been able or willing to rein in the militants. The responsibility for ensuring that Israel sticks to the terms resides with Benjamin Netanyahu, the prime minister, who will have to contain his far-right allies and avoid striking again at any pretext.
It is in the interests of all sides for the ceasefire to last beyond the initial 60-day period. Hizbollah has taken its heaviest beating since it was founded in the 1980s. Israel’s offensive has wrought devastation across Lebanon, particularly in Shia areas from which Hizbollah draws its support. Israeli bombs have killed more than 3,700 people and forced another 1.2mn — almost a quarter of Lebanon’s population — from their homes. Even before the conflict erupted after Hamas’s October 7 2023 attack on Israel, Lebanon was on its knees. Now it faces the daunting challenge of rebuilding after Hizbollah’s miscalculation to side with Hamas.