European leaders treated the first Donald Trump presidency as an aberration: something to ride out while limiting the damage, rather than the spur it should have been to make the continent’s security and economy more resilient. Trump’s re-election proves his first term was no one-off. For four years — and, if Trumpism becomes embedded, perhaps for longer — Europe’s greatest political and economic ally is going to have a president driven by self-interest and little regard for traditional alliances.
That presents European leaders, in the EU and beyond, with multiple problems. As well as facing US tariffs themselves, they may be caught in a trade war between the US and China, Europe’s biggest export markets. If Trump forces Ukraine into a deal with Moscow, they may face an emboldened Vladimir Putin. They must begin, quickly, to take more responsibility for the continent’s defence. Europe’s economy must be made more dynamic and competitive, and less dependent on ties with Washington and Beijing. The goal has to be to insulate Europe as far as possible from Trump-inflicted damage.