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The optimal portfolio for the next decade

How investors should adjust the traditional 60/40 investment split
Nobel Prize winner Harry Markowitz advanced the modern portfolio theory allowing investors to find their optimal portfolio based on their tolerance to risk
The writer is head of asset allocation research at Goldman Sachs

Since interest rates started to rise in 2022, investors have been recovering from one of the largest shocks to their portfolios — and to their belief system around multi-asset diversification.

The surge in inflation during the recovery from the Covid-19 crisis resulted in one of the largest losses for multi-asset portfolios in more than a century. But up until then, simple buy-and-hold portfolios that invested 60 per cent in equities, 40 per cent in bonds had been remarkably successful for the current generation of investors. Inflation has now broadly normalised. So, what is the optimal portfolio for the next decade — is it fine to just go back to 60/40?

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