Emerging markets promise much but have a horrid tendency to disappoint. Net returns in the past year clock in at 12.4 per cent, half that of the broader market as measured by the MSCI All Country World Index. Go back a decade and annualised returns of 2.7 per cent are a third of the MSCI ACWI.
Bad years globally tend to be extra bad in the developing world; good years — in the past decade or so — less good. Inherently more volatile, these markets are at the mercy of global policymaking and capital flows.
Thus US dollar strength means US and European investors need not look so far afield for yield. Inflows wane and imported goods and services cost more. The IMF calculates that dollar appreciation of 10 per cent decreases EM economic output by 1.9 per cent after one year, and continues to weigh for a couple of years.