Venezuela’s revolutionary socialist President Nicolás Maduro is likely to win re-election next month by hook or by crook, US intelligence agencies believe. This may alarm the longtime authoritarian ruler’s opponents, but some investors sense an opportunity.
That might seem odd. A victory in tarnished elections by a Moscow ally who has overseen a 75 per cent collapse in GDP, a bond default and a dive in oil production would not normally be the stuff of market dreams.
Yet some oil executives and bondholders think the US and the EU want to find a way to recognise Maduro, having failed to unseat him with sanctions which helped destroy the Venezuelan economy, drive Caracas into the arms of Russia and Iran and spur the exodus of 7.7mn refugees.
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