Markets are sliding and the main stories investors tell themselves to understand the world are disintegrating. Apart from that, the second quarter of the year is going just great. The first of those stories, or “narratives” if you want to try and sound clever, is around the interest rate outlook. There, both policymakers and investors are putting their hands up and admitting they got this wrong. A run of upbeat inflation data means we are no longer likely to see the Federal Reserve cutting rates hard and fast, kicking one of the foundational pillars away from gains in risky asset prices. This rather embarrassing rethink on what is, after all, the biggest variable in determining how stocks and bonds behave, matters a great deal. But it is not the only market pillar that is buckling, and feeding a 4 per cent decline in global stocks so far this month.
金融市场正在下滑，投资者用来理解世界的主要故事正在瓦解。尽管如此，今年第二季度还算顺利。这些故事中的第一个，或者说“叙述”（如果你想听起来更为聪明的话），关注的是利率前景。在这方面，政策制定者和投资者都举手承认他们的判断失误。一连串的乐观通胀数据意味着美联储不太可能大幅降息了，这一行动本来支撑着风险资产价格上涨的基础柱石。毕竟，决定股票和债券表现的最大变量的重新考量，这一点非常重要。但这并不是市场唯一摇摇欲坠的支柱，它还导致了本月manbetx app苹果 股市下跌4%。