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Boost from Red Sea disruption will only carry shipping lines so far

Requirement to take extra time going around South Africa eases capacity fears, but may deter scrappage

Attacks by Iranian-backed Houthi rebels on container ships navigating the Red Sea stopped the westward flow of presents this Christmas. But the disruption has been something of a gift to shipping lines.

Danish containerline Maersk joined other groups and confirmed this week that transits along the route would pause. Longer journeys around the Cape of Good Hope are sparking fears of a supply crunch and sending freight rates and share prices for operators higher.

That is a sharp change of course for the sector. The soaring rates seen during the pandemic quickly prompted record orders of new ships and widespread expectations of a capacity glut. Those fundamentals have not changed and deliveries are still expected to peak this year. Share prices for Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd, which were previously at three-year lows, illustrate this. A reprieve will be welcomed by shareholders. How long it lasts depends on when order is restored to shipping lanes.

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