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When a chief executive asks for trillions, not billions, when raising funds you know a sector may be getting a bit too hot.
当一位首席执行官在筹集资金时要求数万亿而不是数千亿，你就知道某个行业可能变得过热了。
In the long run, generative artificial intelligence will transform many industries and the way people work. But a report that OpenAI chief executive Sam Altman is talking to investors about an artificial intelligence chip project has raised a lot of questions.
从长远来看，生成式人工智能将改变许多行业和人们的工作方式。但是，OpenAI首席执行官萨姆•奥尔特曼(Sam Altman)正在与投资者讨论一个人工智能芯片项目，引发了很多问题。
A person familiar with the talks was cited as saying the project could require raising as much as $7tn. Scoring even a fraction of that figure — more than the combined gross domestic products of the UK and France — would seem a stretch, to put it mildly.
据一位熟悉谈判的人士称，该项目可能需要筹集多达7万亿美元。即使只能达到这个数字的一小部分，也将是一个巨大的挑战，姑且这么说吧，这个数字超过了英国和法国的国内生产总值之和。
Nonetheless, it reflects just how hot the interest in AI, and the chips that power it, has become. The historical parallel that record-high AI-related stock valuations and fundraising targets bring to mind is the boom and bust in telecom stocks during the dotcom bubble era.
然而，这反映出人工智能及其驱动力量的芯片的热度有多高。创纪录的人工智能相关股票估值和筹资目标所带来的历史类比，让人想起了互联网泡沫时代电信股的繁荣与崩溃。
Back then, investors had expected the internet to transform the world. Telecoms companies and hardware suppliers would then be big winners. The problem was the sector’s valuations were pricing in that transformation to come almost overnight. Now, a similar level of optimism is driving investment in AI-related companies.
当时，投资者曾期待互联网能改变世界。届时，电信公司和硬件供应商将成为大赢家。问题是，该行业的估值几乎在一夜之间就为这种转变定价。现在，类似程度的乐观情绪正在推动对人工智能相关公司的投资。
When the internet first became widely used, networking hardware was king. Servers needed to be built and connected using routers. Companies began building and buying hardware on the basis that extreme demand for servers would continue indefinitely. Telecom gear stocks such as Cisco surged more than 30-fold in the years to its 2000 peak.
当互联网首次被广泛使用时，网络硬件是王者。服务器需要使用路由器进行构建和连接。公司开始基于对服务器的极高需求将硬件建设和购买作为基础。思科(Cisco)等电信设备公司的股票在2000年达到顶峰时增长了超过29倍。
But the collapse of the telecoms industry came earlier than expected — taking just four years to go from boom to bust — and much faster than the internet changed our lives. Oversupply pushed more than 20 telecom groups into bankruptcy by 2002. Shares plunged.
但是电信行业的崩溃比预期要早——从繁荣到崩溃只用了四年时间——而且比互联网改变我们的生活速度更快。供应过剩导致2002年有20多家电信集团破产。股价暴跌。
Now, in the world of AI, chips are king. Thus, the rush for AI companies to own more of the chipmaking supply chain is understandable. As AI models become larger, more chips are needed. A continuing shortage adds urgency.
现在，在人工智能的世界中，芯片是王者。因此，人工智能公司争相拥有更多的芯片供应链是可以理解的。随着人工智能模型变得越来越大，需要更多的芯片。持续的短缺使情况更加紧迫。
Yet how long these shortages will last is debatable. It has been just two years since the world’s car industry was brought to almost a standstill because of a severe shortage of automotive chips. It took less than a year for that crunch to ease. Today, the supply of auto chips has not only normalised but many types are in a glut.
然而，这些短缺将持续多久还存在争议。距离manbetx app苹果
汽车行业因为汽车芯片严重短缺而几乎陷入停滞，仅仅过去了两年。那次危机的缓解只用了不到一年的时间。如今，汽车芯片的供应不仅已经恢复正常，而且许多类型的芯片都供过于求。
The biggest risk of throwing too much cash, too fast, at AI chips is overcapacity. That is already a problem for older-generation chips. With the current sector downturn lasting longer than expected, Samsung had to slash production last year to deal with a deepening chip glut. Japanese peer Kioxia posted a record $1.7bn loss for the three quarters to December. Adding to this, more than 70 new fabrication plants are being built.
向人工智能芯片投入过多资金过快的最大风险是产能过剩。这已经是老一代芯片面临的问题。由于当前行业低迷的时间比预期更长，三星(Samsung)去年不得不削减生产以应对日益加剧的芯片供应过剩。日本同行西部数据(Kioxia)在截至12月的三个季度中录得创纪录的17亿美元亏损。此外，还有70多个新的制造工厂正在建设中。
Meanwhile, global silicon wafer shipments