After the fall: the legacy of Boris Johnson | 鲍里斯·约翰逊之后,英国走向何方? - manbetx20客户端下载
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17周年大视野精选
【高端限免】After the fall: the legacy of Boris Johnson
鲍里斯·约翰逊之后,英国走向何方?

Britain’s next Conservative prime minister will operate in a landscape defined by a uniquely polarising leader | 英国下一任保守党首相将在一个独特的两极分化领导人所定义的环境中工作。

There were moist eyes around the cabinet table on Thursday as Boris Johnson began his long goodbye from British politics. “There were a few of them wiping away tears,” says one member of Johnson’s hastily assembled team. “Pathetic really. I wasn’t crying.”
周四,当鲍里斯•约翰逊(Boris Johnson)开始告别英国政坛时,内阁会议桌周围的人都热泪盈眶。“有几个人在擦眼泪,”约翰逊匆忙组建的团队的一名成员说。“真的很可怜。我并没有哭。”
Indeed beyond the loyalists clinging to the wreckage of Johnson’s broken government, there were few tears being shed among Conservative MPs after they drove out of office the man who led Britain out of the EU and who — according to his critics — dragged British politics into the mud.
事实上,除了坚守在约翰逊残破政府残骸上的忠诚分子外,保守党议员们几乎没有流下眼泪,因为他们赶走了带领英国脱离欧盟的约翰逊,而且根据他的批评者的说法,他把英国政治拖入了泥潭。
After a series of scandals in which Johnson repeated the same dismal cycle of concealing the truth, retreating, then being found out, his party could take it no longer. “Enough is enough,” Sajid Javid told parliament the day after quitting as health secretary on Tuesday, a decision that triggered an avalanche of resignations which swept the prime minister away.
在一系列丑闻中,约翰逊重复着掩盖真相、退缩、然后被发现的悲惨循环,他的政党再也无法忍受了。赛义德•贾维德(Sajid Javid)于周二辞去卫生部长一职,并在第二天向议会表示:“受够了。”贾维德的这一决定引发了雪崩式的辞职,首相也因此下台。
Johnson will remain in office, but not in power, until September, when the Conservative party elects a new leader to replace him. A lucrative career of speechmaking, journalism and book-writing lie ahead.
约翰逊将继续留任,但不掌权,直到9月,保守党选出新的领导人来取代他。他的未来将进入一个有利可图的演讲、新闻和写书的生涯。
In some global capitals there was relief. Joe Biden, US president, could not bring himself to mention Johnson’s name in a statement on the “special relationship” after the UK prime minister announced his resignation as Tory leader.
在manbetx app苹果 一些国家的首都,人们松了一口气。在英国首相宣布辞去保守党领袖职务后,美国总统拜登在一份关于“特殊关系”的声明中没有提及约翰逊的名字。
Biden, who once called Johnson a “physical and emotional clone” of Donald Trump, was frustrated with the prime minister’s willingness to rip up his Brexit treaty with the EU — a decision, argue critics, that threatens to destabilise Northern Ireland’s Good Friday peace agreement.
拜登曾称约翰逊是唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)的“身体和情感克隆”,他对首相撕毁他与欧盟的脱欧条约感到失望——批评者认为,这一决定可能会破坏北爱尔兰的耶稣受难日和平协议。
“I won’t miss him,” said Bruno Le Maire, French finance minister, on Friday, echoing similar sentiments across the EU. “It proves that Brexit mixed up with populism does not make for a good cocktail for a nation.”
法国财政部长布鲁诺•勒梅尔(Bruno Le Maire)上周五表示:“我不会想念他。”欧盟各国也表达了类似的情绪。“这证明,英国脱欧和民粹主义混在一起,对一个国家来说不是一杯好鸡尾酒。”
James Cleverly, the new education secretary and a Johnson loyalist, says the comparison with Trump clinging on to power is ludicrous. “We are not America,” he says. Yet some Conservative MPs did make the comparison, fearing Johnson could take Britain to a dark place.
约翰逊的忠实支持者、新任教育大臣詹姆斯•克莱弗利(James Cleverly)表示,将其与特朗普紧握权力不放相提并论是荒谬的。“我们不是美国,”他说。然而,一些保守党议员确实做了比较,他们担心约翰逊会把英国带向黑暗。
The 58-year-old leader had jokingly compared his determination to cling to office to that of the Japanese soldier Hiroo Onoda, who hid in the jungle for years and refused to accept Japan’s surrender after the second world war, but others did not see the funny side.
这位58岁的领导人曾开玩笑地将自己坚持执政的决心比作二战后躲在丛林中多年、拒绝接受日本投降的日本军人小野田宽郎(Hiroo Onoda),但其他人并不认为这有什么好笑的地方。
The UK prime minister had claimed he had a direct “mandate” from the British voters — MPs had to remind him that Britain is a parliamentary democracy, not a presidential system. Briefings by some of his allies that Tory MPs would have to “dip their hands in blood” to remove him evoked shudders.
英国首相曾声称他有来自英国选民的直接“授权”--议员们不得不提醒他,英国是一个议会民主制,而不是总统制。他的一些盟友通报说,保守党议员将不得不“把手浸在鲜血中”才能让他下台,这让人不寒而栗。
In the end Johnson went quietly. There was no angry mob, just a small band of diehard loyalists applauding him in Downing Street as he announced his resignation. Johnson blamed everybody else for his misfortune — accepting no personal responsibility — then turned on his heels and disappeared behind the famous black door.
最后,约翰逊安静地离开了。没有愤怒的暴民,只有一小群铁杆支持者在他宣布辞职时在唐宁街为他鼓掌。约翰逊把自己的不幸归咎于其他人——没有承担任何个人责任——然后转身离开,消失在那扇著名的黑门后面。
Most of the political obituaries agreed that Johnson, and his style of government, were unique in British politics. Indeed none of the contenders to replace him have anything like the flair, charisma or devilry that made him such a compelling leader.
大多数政治讣告都认为,约翰逊和他的政府风格在英国政治中是独一无二的。的确,取代他的竞争者中没有一个人具有使他成为如此引人注目的领导人的天赋、魅力或魔鬼般的气质。
But his departure raises questions about Johnson’s political legacy and whether — whoever inherits his crown — the next Conservative prime minister will be operating in a landscape defined by the leader known by allies as “Big Dog”.
但是,他的离开引发了对约翰逊政治遗产的质疑,以及无论谁继承他的王位,下一任保守党首相是否会在一个由被盟友称为“大狗”的领导人定义的环境中运作。

Tax cuts vs public spending

减税与公共开支

Few doubt that Johnson will go down in British history as a highly consequential prime minister: the leader who spearheaded the campaign to rip Britain out of the EU in 2016 and then — against significant opposition — delivered on his promise to “get Brexit done”.
几乎没有人怀疑,约翰逊将作为一位影响深远的首相载入英国历史:这位领导人在2016年带头推动英国退出欧盟,然后——不顾重大反对——兑现了“完成脱欧”的承诺。
His 2019 general election victory delivered a Conservative majority of 80 — the biggest since the 1980s heyday of Margaret Thatcher — extending the party’s reach into constituencies that had never previously voted Tory.
他在2019年的大选中获胜,使保守党获得了80票的多数席位,这是自玛格丽特·撒切尔(Margaret Thatcher)上世纪80年代全盛时期以来最大的一次,使该党的势力范围扩大到此前从未投票支持保守党的选区。
“He demonstrated that there is an electoral market for Conservatives in former industrial seats in the north, midlands and north Wales that the party had almost given up on,” says David Lidington, former de facto deputy prime minister to Johnson’s predecessor Theresa May.
“他证明,保守党在北部、中部和北威尔士的前工业席位存在一个选举市场,该党几乎放弃了这些席位,”约翰逊前任特里萨•梅(Theresa May)事实上的副首相戴维•利丁顿(David Lidington)表示。
Although Johnson arguably had an easy task in defeating the unelectable leftwing Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn in 2019, his achievements will define the political landscape for his successor.
尽管约翰逊在2019年击败不可能当选的左翼工党领袖杰里米·科尔宾(Jeremy Corbyn)可以说是一件轻而易举的事情,但他的成就将决定他的继任者的政治前景。
Brexit was the issue that helped the Tories make headway in the so-called red wall constituencies in working class parts of the north of England — the Labour party’s traditional heartland — and it is now accepted by all mainstream UK parties that there is no way back for Britain, at least not for the foreseeable future, when it comes to EU membership.
英国脱欧是帮助保守党在英格兰北部工人阶级地区的所谓红墙选区--工党的传统中心地带--取得进展的问题,现在英国所有主流政党都接受,在欧盟成员资格问题上,英国没有任何退路,至少在可预见的未来没有。
Even Sir Keir Starmer, Labour leader, this week announced that if he wins the next election he will not try to take Britain back into the EU single market or customs union and there would be no return of freedom of movement.
就连工党领袖基尔•斯塔默爵士(Sir Keir Starmer)本周也宣布,如果他在下次选举中获胜,他将不会试图让英国重新回到欧盟单一市场或关税联盟,而且行动自由也将不复存在。
Starmer describes his approach as “making Brexit work” and that will be the task facing whichever Conservative politician succeeds Johnson as prime minister. Leaders in European capitals — and Biden in Washington — are hoping to see a more constructive approach.
斯塔默将他的做法描述为“使英国脱欧成功”,这将是无论哪位保守党政治家接替约翰逊担任首相所面临的任务。欧洲各国首都的领导人--以及华盛顿的拜登--都希望看到一种更具建设性的方法。
Johnson has embedded Brexit — regarded as recently as 2015 by most mainstream politicians as a cranky obsession of Nigel Farage’s UK Independence party — as national policy, in spite of accumulating evidence of the economic damage it is causing.
尽管有越来越多的证据表明英国脱欧正在造成manbetx20客户端下载 损失,但约翰逊还是将英国脱欧作为国家政策。直至2015年,英国脱欧还被大多数主流政治家视为奈杰尔·法拉奇(Nigel Farage)的英国独立党的一个古怪的执念。
Tory candidates for the leadership will have to talk tough on Europe, but some of the frontrunners — including former chancellor Rishi Sunak and foreign affairs committee chair Tom Tugendhat — are likely to seek better relations with Brussels, with a view to softening the economic harm of Brexit and resolving the Northern Ireland stand-off.
保守党领导人候选人将不得不在欧洲问题上发表强硬言论,但一些领先者——包括前财政大臣里希•苏纳克(Rishi Sunak)和外交事务委员会主席汤姆·图根达特(Tom Tugendhat)——可能会寻求与布鲁塞尔改善关系,以缓解英国退欧对manbetx20客户端下载 的伤害,并解决北爱尔兰僵局。
Paul Goodman, former Tory MP and editor of the ConservativeHome website, says that rightwing leadership contenders could promise to complete the Brexit project by using newfound regulatory freedoms to deliver a “Singapore Brexit” — of low taxes and light regulation — while striking tough poses on the NI protocol.
前保守党议员、保守党之家(ConservativeHome)网站编辑保罗•古德曼(Paul Goodman)表示,右翼领导人竞选人可以承诺,通过利用新获得的监管自由,实现“新加坡式的脱欧”(即低税收、宽松监管),同时对北爱协议摆出强硬姿态,从而完成脱欧计划。
At the same time, Johnson’s success at using Brexit to open up the north of England to the Tories has created new economic facts on the ground for whoever becomes the next Conservative prime minister. First time Tory voters in 2019 are expecting to see some return on their political investment and many are still waiting.
与此同时,约翰逊成功地利用英国退欧向保守党敞开了英格兰北部的大门,这为无论谁成为下一任保守党首相都创造了新的manbetx20客户端下载 现实。2019年保守党选民首次投票,他们期待看到政治投资的一些回报,许多人仍在等待。
The next Tory prime minister will need to hold on to working class northern towns — the seat of Wakefield was retaken by Labour at a by-election in June that spooked Conservative MPs — if they are to retain power after the next election, expected in 2024. That means maintaining high levels of public spending to achieve Johnson’s “levelling up” agenda.
如果保守党想要在预计2024年的下次选举后继续掌权,下一任保守党首相将需要保住北部的工人阶级城镇——在6月份的一次补选中,工党重新夺回了韦克菲尔德的席位,这让保守党议员感到不安。这意味着要维持高水平的公共支出,以实现约翰逊的“城镇升级”议程。
This new political map poses a problem for wannabe leaders. To win the leadership, they have to woo a Tory electorate of around 100,000 party members who are often old, southern-based and well-off. But to hold on to national power they will have to appeal to those northern towns that Johnson promised so much to. Above all, Tory members and the Conservative-supporting parts of the media want tax cuts.
这种新的政治版图给想成为领导人的人带来了一个问题。为了赢得领导权,他们必须赢得约10万保守党选民的支持,这些选民大多是居住在南方、生活富裕的老年人。但要保住国家权力,他们就必须吸引那些北部城镇,约翰逊曾承诺要吸引这些城镇。最重要的是,保守党成员和支持保守党的部分媒体希望减税。
As chancellor, Sunak recognised the simple mathematical problem of delivering high public spending and lower taxes, especially at a time of high inflation and as the country counts the economic and personal cost of the coronavirus pandemic. He argued that lower taxes should be paid for by higher growth and spending cuts. Jacob Rees-Mogg, a Johnson loyalist in parliament, claimed this week that Sunak’s willingness to put up taxes to balance the books made him a “much lamented socialist chancellor”.
作为财政大臣,苏纳克认识到高公共支出和低税收这一简单的数学问题,尤其是在高通胀时期,在该国计算新冠疫情的manbetx20客户端下载 和个人成本之际。他认为,低税收应该由更高的增长和削减开支来支付。约翰逊在议会中的忠实支持者雅各布•里斯-莫格(Jacob Rees-Mogg)本周声称,苏纳克愿意通过增加税收来平衡收支,这使他成为“令人遗憾的社会主义财政大臣”。
Johnson was about to over-rule his chancellor by offering aggressive tax cuts, probably funded by borrowing, insisting this is the way to boost growth. But Sunak quit in protest, just minutes after Javid, fearing Johnson’s short-term survival strategy risked throwing petrol on the inflationary fire.
约翰逊打算否决他的财政大臣,提出激进的减税方案,并坚称这是提振增长的途径,减税资金可能来自借款。但就在贾维德辞职几分钟后,苏纳克辞职以示抗议,他担心约翰逊的短期生存策略可能会给通胀火上浇油。
Goodman believes the economic debate in the Tory leadership will be between those, like Sunak, who favour tax cuts funded by spending cuts, and those who want tax cuts funded by borrowing.
古德曼认为,保守党领导层的manbetx20客户端下载 辩论将在像苏纳克这样,支持通过削减开支来支持减税的人,与希望通过借贷来支持减税的人之间展开。
A third Johnson legacy is likely to be an ongoing commitment to relatively high levels of defence spending. The prime minister’s decisive response to the Ukraine crisis, including immediately arming Kyiv, has earned him rare credit abroad. Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Thursday called him “a hero”.
约翰逊留下的第三个遗产可能是对相对较高水平的国防开支的持续承诺。首相对乌克兰危机的果断反应,包括立即向基辅提供武器,为他在国外赢得了罕见的声誉。周四,弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基(Volodymyr Zelensky)称他为“英雄”。
Just days before his resignation Johnson urged Nato countries to honour their commitment to spend a minimum of 2 per cent of gross domestic product on defence; Britain has long exceeded that target. Johnson has demonstrated that in a post-Brexit world, the UK can leverage its relative military heft to gain foreign policy advantage.
就在他辞职的前几天,约翰逊敦促北约国家履行承诺,将至少2%的国内生产总值用于国防;英国早已超过了这一目标。约翰逊已经证明,在英国脱欧后的世界里,英国可以利用其相对的军事力量来获得外交政策的优势。

‘It’s never his fault’

“这从来都不是他的错”

In his resignation speech, Johnson said he was “proud” of his achievements, including delivering Brexit, rolling out an effective Covid-19 vaccine programme and standing up for Ukraine. But his domestic policy agenda — including economic policy — often seemed incoherent. His day-to-day management was shambolic.
约翰逊在辞职演讲中表示,他对自己取得的成就感到“自豪”,包括实现英国退欧、推出有效的新冠疫苗计划以及支持乌克兰。但他的国内政策议程(包括manbetx20客户端下载 政策)往往显得不连贯。他的日常管理混乱不堪。
“He will go down as a significant prime minister, but not seen as good for the country,” says Lidington. “He was never any good at actually governing.” Goodman compares Johnson to a “Turkish sultan or a Tudor monarch”, ruling by whim, constantly changing his mind, with no clear strategic direction.
“他将作为一位重要的首相而被载入史册,但不被视为对国家有益,”利丁顿说。“他从来都不擅长真正的治理。” 古德曼把约翰逊比作一个“土耳其苏丹或都铎王朝的君主”,靠一时兴起来统治,不断改变主意,没有明确的战略方向。