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Betting on risk changes the world
风险押注改变世界

Prediction markets are the latest example of a disruptive new industry smacking into problems incumbents have long understood
哈福德:预测市场蓬勃发展,人们可以就各种事件的未来风险进行押注,这能帮助人们规避风险,但也可能给现实世界带来侵蚀与堕落。

It was one of the most astonishing displays of persuasion I have ever seen. In the audience, a group of Midwestern agribusiness types, who by profession should have been well attuned to climate change, but by culture were deeply sceptical. On the stage, a Germanic gentleman from one of the great Alpine reinsurance companies, presenting a meticulous analysis of how changes in rainfall and temperature were reshaping crop insurance premiums. The first, slightly awestruck question: “So . . . you think this climate change thing is real?”

那是我见过的最令人叹为观止的说服力展示之一。台下是一群来自美国中西部的农业企业人士,按理说他们由于自己所处的行业应该对气候变化非常了解,但文化背景让他们对此深表怀疑。台上是一位来自阿尔卑斯山地区一家大型再保险公司的德国绅士,他正在细致地分析降雨和气温变化如何影响农作物保险费率。台下第一个问题带着些许敬畏:“所以……你认为气候变化是真的?”

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