What lies ahead for the world economy? A plausible answer is that it has started to splinter. This is the argument of Neil Shearing, group chief economist at Capital Economics, in his thoughtful new book The Fractured Age. Fracturing, he notes, is not the same as “deglobalising”. Trade and other forms of globalisation might not shrink by much. This should be nothing like the collapse of the 1930s. But trade with rivals will shrink and trade with friends will rise. In particular, he suggests, the world will divide between a US-centred bloc and a China-centred one, with a number of unaligned countries stuck in between, trying to do their best.
世界manbetx20客户端下载 未来会怎样？一个令人信服的答案是，世界manbetx20客户端下载 已开始分裂。这是凯投宏观(Capital Economics)集团首席manbetx20客户端下载 学家尼尔•希林(Neil Shearing)在他那本思想深刻的新书《分裂的时代》(The Fractured Age)中提出的观点。他指出，碎片化与“去manbetx app苹果 化”不是一回事。贸易及其他形式的manbetx app苹果 化也许不会显著萎缩。这应该与上世纪30年代的崩溃毫无相似之处。但是，与竞争对手的贸易将会萎缩，而与盟友的贸易将会增长。特别是，他认为世界将分裂为一个以美国为中心的阵营和一个以manbetx3.0 为中心的阵营，一些不结盟国家夹在两大阵营之间，试着尽力而为。