Donald Trump’s second term is now six months old. For all the fears around the US president’s tariff-raising agenda, those that believed the American economy would do just fine are feeling vindicated by a few recent data points.
In June, jobs growth beat expectations and inflation data showed only modest signs of a tariff-related bump. The S&P 500 closed at a record high on Thursday. The second-quarter earnings season has so far delivered “better than expected” results for America’s largest companies too.
I argue that the US economy is far more fragile than these headlines suggest.
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