Wall Street bosses thought they were getting the “art of the deal” when Donald Trump won the US election. The reality looks more Jackson Pollock than Rembrandt. Asset managers, in particular, have been pummeled. The combined market capitalisation of Blackstone, Apollo, KKR, Carlyle, TPG, Ares and Blue Owl is almost 40 per cent down, a $200bn loss from its post-election peak.
In part, that is a result of the M&A boom that never was. In the weeks after Trump’s election victory last November, the stocks of investment banks and private capital managers roared in hopes that M&A would finally kick off. Wall Street bosses such as Blackstone’s Stephen Schwarzman and Goldman Sachs’ David Solomon cheered what they believed was coming deregulation from a president who was unapologetically pro-business.
Financial plutocrats are, instead, dealing with an almost unprecedented global trade war. Uncertainty means fewer deals, fundraisings and financings, which will hurt the transaction fees, management fees and incentive profits that drive banks’ and asset management firms’ revenue and earnings growth. The recent market rout has exacerbated that effect. Morgan Stanley analysts on Monday pushed out their expectation of “normalised” capital markets from 2026 to 2028.