观点美联储

The Fed’s dilemma on Trump

It will not want to look as if it is prejudging policies as inflationary during election season

The writer is vice-chair of Evercore ISI and a former member of the management committee of the New York Fed

Investors are grappling with what a second Trump presidency would mean for the US economy, the Federal Reserve and interest rates, even as they also weigh the possibility that vice-president Kamala Harris might turn the tables.

There are two aspects to the debate — potential pressure from Trump on the Fed and the impact of Trump policy shocks on the economy and rates. The more extreme scenarios are ones in which political pressure prevents a timely response to the shocks. 

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