Has the time come to slow the monetary tightening or even reverse it? That the answer to these questions is “yes” is becoming an increasingly common view. Markets are certainly behaving as if the days of tightening were numbered. They might even be right. But, crucially, they will only be right on the future of monetary policy if economies turn out to be weak. The stronger economies are, the greater the worry of central banks that inflation will not return to a stable 2 per cent and so the longer policy is likely to stay tight. In essence, then, one can hope that economies will be strong, policy will ease and inflation will vanish, all at the same time. But this best of all possible worlds is far from the most likely one.
现在到了放慢收紧货币政策的步伐、甚至放松政策的时候了吗？日益普遍的观点认为，上述问题的答案是肯定的。市场的表现显然表明它认为保持紧缩货币政策的日子已经屈指可数。这种观点甚至可能是对的。但至关重要的是，只有在manbetx20客户端下载 疲软的情况下，对货币政策走向的这种判断才是正确的。manbetx20客户端下载 越强劲，各国央行就越担心通胀无法回到2%的稳定水平，因此维持紧缩政策的时间可能就会越长。因此，归根到底，人们可以同时希望manbetx20客户端下载 会强劲、政策会放松，通胀会消失，但这三种最好情况同时发生远非可能性最高的结果。