Day by day, the coalition against Vladimir Putin is conducting a high-speed experiment in building and deploying a toolkit of trade and economic measures against a belligerent state. On Tuesday the EU, whose speed and unity continue radically to outperform expectations, ratcheted up its sanctions to include restrictions on dealing with Russian state-owned companies and bans on luxury goods exports there.
Although drawing conclusions about the future at this stage feels a bit like anticipating the Bretton Woods conference in the weeks after Pearl Harbor, it’s natural to think ahead to how this might permanently change the way the world economy, trade and energy are governed. Especially if the sanctions actually dislodge Putin (unlikely) or force him into a ceasefire that looks like failure (a bit more likely), an international policy framework will have been created that could be turned to more sustainable and creative ends. There are, however, a bunch of substantial obstacles to getting there.
First, the willingness of the EU to take on a broader geopolitical role based on principle is untested outside Ukraine. It’s much easier to get consensus around sanctions, arms sales, willingness to absorb energy shocks and generosity towards refugees for a white mainly Christian country aspiring to EU membership. The much harsher treatment of African, Middle Eastern and Asian refugees and migrants arriving at the EU’s borders suggests Europe’s commitment to universal values is selective.