Bond and equity markets have been telling stories in recent weeks that were essentially irreconcilable. While stocks exuded relentless optimism, bond yields plummeted in a recession-obsessed nervous swoon. By last week, 10-year US Treasuries were offering yields well below that of three-month bills — an inversion of the normal yield curve that has historically been a good guide to the risk of a recession.
最近几周，债券和股票市场讲述着在本质上不可调和的故事。在股市弥漫着强烈乐观情绪的同时，债券收益率却在担心衰退的恐慌气氛中下挫。到上周，美国10年期国债收益率远远低于3个月国债，这意味着正常的收益率曲线出现反转。从历史上说，这是衰退风险的良好指引。
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