When in doubt over the past 10 years, it has made sense to blame China. Since 2011, the biggest interruption to the bull market in stocks came when China terrified investors with poorly handled renminbi devaluations in 2015 and early 2016.
Since January, world stocks have endured their worst stall since that time. This is, in part, a classic correction after stocks had become plainly overvalued. But it is also popular to blame the drama over tariffs, which has dominated economic news for weeks. I suspect we should instead worry more about internal developments in China.
The S&P 500 is hard to distinguish from MSCI’s index of the 100 developed world stocks with the greatest exposure to China — which includes a number of tech names but which should surely stand to be hurt worst in a trade conflict between the US and China. Both are up nearly 30 per cent for the year so far. Meanwhile, domestic Chinese A-shares have tanked, dropping some 27 per cent since a peak in early January.