The latest Opec meeting ended in some confusion on Friday with different numbers quoted for the planned production increase. It appears that a target increase of 1m barrels per day has been set but that some countries will be unable to meet that level, making a net increase of about 700,000 barrels per day coming largely from Saudi Arabia the most likely result.
The outcome of the meeting, however, does nothing to address two uncertainties that will shape the oil market over the coming months and years.
The first is the situation in Venezuela, which has gone from bad to worse over the past two months. In the short term, the situation remains the greatest uncertainty hanging over the oil market. The country’s production of crude oil fell to 1.36m barrels a day in May, 600,000 b/d down from its level a year ago. The International Energy Agency has raised the possibility that output could fall to 800,000 b/d next year. Given the dramatic collapse in Venezuelan living standards, it is hard to imagine that the government can remain in power. But so far predictions of political change have not been fulfilled.