With Donald Trump poised to deliver on his presidential campaign promises to protect American industries with tariffs, the question is: what does this mean for the world economy?
If you plug the actual and anticipated actions of the US into most models, there is an almost imperceptible annual shift in gross domestic product growth in the US, Chinese and global economies. Despite the sound and fury, the steel and aluminium tariffs, $50bn of tariffs on Chinese goods imported by the US and $50bn tariffs on US goods imported by China add up, based on the models, to the economic equivalent of a mosquito bite.
The impact of a trade war is greatest on the countries directly involved in the tariffs and tends to be felt early on. In this case, the models point to an average of one- to two-tenths of a percentage point drag on growth per year for the US and China over a five-year period.