The Asia-Pacific region is an increasingly important driver of global growth, and sits in an increasingly delicate strategic equilibrium. One country poses an imminent danger to the region’s stability and therefore its prosperity: North Korea. The regime in Pyongyang is persistent in pursuit of nuclear weapons and the missiles to deploy them over long distances. The stand-off is terribly dangerous already, and will grow worse. Stronger international engagement is needed — now.
Experts believe that North Korea possesses more than 20 nuclear bombs. It has deployed ballistic missiles with ranges that extend to Japan, and has been performing tests with the aim of developing missiles that can reach the west coast of the US. It is a matter of time before it can make nuclear bombs compact enough for such missiles to carry: five years is the consensus estimate. The US and its allies could not and should not tolerate this. The threat is not limited to the Pacific. In 2008, US government officials alleged that Pyongyang had attempted to help Syria develop a nuclear facility.
The international community needs to bring North Korea back to the table for multilateral talks, with the end of the missile programme as the proximate goal. There are three keys for success. First, an unambiguous warning to Pyongyang that the world will never, under any conditions, acknowledge it as a legitimate or permanent nuclear power. Second, backing these warnings with heavier sanctions. Finally, the US, South Korea and Japan must accelerate their co-operation on a missile defence network in the region.