The deal agreed by Opec members this week will come to symbolise the passing of one of the world’s most powerful cartels. After 50 years in control of the oil price, Opec has submitted to the economic power of a much-changed global market. The deal represents the recognition of their own impotence by a group of countries that once held unchallenged power.
The agreement to cut production from January by 1.2m barrels a day raised prices on the world market by almost 10 per cent. The net result was a global price for Brent crude, the international benchmark, of $52 a barrel — up a few dollars from the previous day but still down almost 50 per cent from two years ago.
What should investors and consumers make of all this? First, consider the modesty of the increase in prices. This is not a deal capable of lifting prices to the level of $60 or $70 a barrel that is supposed to be Opec’s target. The market is obviously sceptical about delivery. Will Iran limit its production when it desperately needs increased output and revenue to sustain its economy? Will Russia actually cut output by 300,000 b/d? When did Russia last participate in an Opec quota exercise? Answer: never.