The fate of Angela Merkel’s “open door” policy on refugees has assumed global significance. Nationalists from Russia to the US are pointing at the German chancellor’s policies as a symbol of the failure of an out-of-touch liberal elite. In the most recent US presidential debate, Donald Trump denounced Ms Merkel, adding: “Germany is a disaster right now.” Even within the EU, many leaders, particularly in the east, echo that sentiment.
As a result, this weekend’s German regional elections were watched all over the world for signs of an anti-Merkel backlash. In the event, the results were ambiguous. The chancellor’s party, the Christian Democrats, suffered a series of setbacks amid a surge in support for Alternative für Deutschland, a populist anti-immigration party.
By the standards of the rest of Europe (or the US), German voters remained pretty steady — and the AfD are still a long way from power. Given that Germany has received more than 1m refugees in less than a year, it is remarkable that there has not been more of a backlash. (When I recently asked a senior British politician how long a Merkel-style “open door” for refugees would have lasted in the UK, he replied: “Less than 24 hours.”)