After a five-month slide, the renminbi seems to be getting its mojo back. Last week, the Chinese currency rose 0.5 per cent against the US dollar over five days, the most since 2011.
Economic optimism may have played some part in the rebound. Rising inflation and improving exports augur well for a country struggling with falling factory gate prices and tepid external demand. A pick-up in orders from the rest of the world could offer a timely counterweight to the problems in the domestic economy, such as a difficult housing market.
While some analysts have trimmed forecasts for growth and currency appreciation this year, most are confident the renminbi will be stronger at the end of the year, and that the economy will grow at a minimum annual rate of 7 per cent, if not meet Beijing’s target of 7.5 per cent. Most have also taken the view that the renminbi’s recent fall was an engineered move designed to scare off speculators, and as such will prove temporary.