The global debate over the potential for liberalisation of the Chinese renminbi is, to say the least, polarised. At one extreme are enthusiasts who think it inevitable and will occur in a relatively short timeframe, while on the other hand an array of sceptics says full international convertibility of the renminbi will never happen.
Bluntly, argues Maarten-Jan Bakkum, senior emerging market strategist at ING Investment Management, China’s political and economic representatives say the right things most of the time but their words fail to turn into action. He regards the excitement as overdone.
Paul Lambert, head of currency at Insight Investment Management, sees a quasi-float along the lines of the Singapore dollar. He adds, however, that investor wariness of corporate governance standards could remain an intangible but very real barrier to international fund flows.