Paul Samuelson, one of the very first winners of the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics, had little faith in the predictive powers of the stock market. In the 1960s, the professor jokingly noted that “Wall Street indexes predicted nine out of the last five recessions”. Yet when it comes to forecasting a slump, the profession which Mr Samuelson helped to found has no better record than stockpickers. Not only did the majority of economists fail to foresee the 2008 financial crisis. Once the downturn hit, most forecasters predicted substantially higher growth rates than those which were actually realised.
诺贝尔manbetx20客户端下载 学奖的早期得主之一保罗•塞缪尔森(Paul Samuelson)不怎么相信股票市场的预测能力。20世纪60年代，这位教授开玩笑地指出，“华尔街指数预测到了最近五次衰退中的九次”。不过，若论及预测衰退的成功率，塞缪尔森帮助建立的这个行当的成绩也没比选股师好到哪儿去。大多数manbetx20客户端下载 学家不仅没能预见到2008年的金融危机，而且在衰退来临之时，大多数人预测的增长率还比实际结果高出不少。