The season of goodwill has made way for the new year torrent of predictions. Most are quickly forgotten – mercifully so, given the hit rate of the commentariat. Today’s world spins too quickly for the sharpest crystal-ball gazer. A better way of looking at what lies ahead is to chart some of the underlying forces shaping the global landscape. The outline that emerges is one of rising prosperity and opportunity, and of diminishing security.
For all the gloomsters, the world is still getting richer. Europe may be wrapped up in the euro crisis and the US in political gridlock – and the withdrawal of its unprecedented monetary stimulus will doubtless cause problems elsewhere – yet the story remains one in which steadily rising global output is transforming the life chances of billions of people. There are as many opportunities for the west as for the rest.
The redistribution of economic power to rising nations presages another fundamental shift. Within a couple of decades, a world that is still predominantly poor will be mostly middle class. Mexico, Indonesia, Vietnam, Brazil, Turkey and others now have a firm place in a narrative that was once about China and India. Investors are discovering Africa in much the same way as they once did Asia and Latin America. By 2020 or so, another 1bn consumers may join the ranks of middle classes in these economies.