Twelve weeks in to his presidency, when the Great Recession was at its darkest and he was still the embodiment of hope, Barack Obama gave a speech about rebuilding and rebalancing the US economy. In the biblical mode that suits him so well, Mr Obama told a parable from the Sermon on the Mount about the foolish man who built his house on sand and the wise man who built his house on rock.
“We cannot rebuild this economy on the same pile of sand,” said Mr Obama. “We must build our house upon a rock. We must lay a new foundation for growth and prosperity – a foundation that will move us from an era of borrow and spend to one where we save and invest; where we consume less at home and send more exports abroad.”
Four years on, that rebalancing has stalled; the US is building again, but on foundations of sand. It is depressing to consider, but on its current path the US is headed back to the same economic structure as before the recession: driven by consumption and sucking in imports. These are the first steps towards a future crisis.