A camel, it is said, is a horse designed by a committee. This is unfair to camels, which are well-adapted to their harsh environment. The same, alas, cannot be said of eurozone rescue programmes. The proposed Cyprus intervention, rejected yesterday by the Nicosia parliament, will not help the eurozone make a smooth exit from its wave of crises. Indeed, the imbroglio should serve as a lesson in how not to deal with financial and sovereign debt problems.
Let us start with why some bank restructuring was inevitable. The government of Cyprus is both highly indebted and is responsible for a banking sector that is surely too big to save. According to the IMF, gross government debt reached 87 per cent of gross domestic product last year and would reach 106 per cent of GDP by 2017, without the bailout. The sovereign credit rating is also far below investment grade: Standard & Poor’s rates Cyprus CCC+. That is not surprising: the banking sector still has assets over seven times GDP. (See charts.)
The banks stand on the edge of collapse. But it is the European Central Bank that has pulled the plug by threatening not to accept Cypriot government debt as collateral against liquidity support. Banks have to be recapitalised. Taxpayers cannot do this, on their own. Without taxing depositors, the proposed rescue package would have had to be €17.2bn, instead of €10bn, or close to 70 per cent of GDP. This would have brought sovereign debt to some 160 per cent of GDP: an unsustainable burden. Indeed even the actual bailout package looks unsustainable, since it would appear to bring gross debt to 130 per cent of GDP. Under the programme, public debt is to fall to 100 per cent of GDP by 2020. Achieving that will demand substantial fiscal tightening and lending to Cyprus on easy terms. A restructuring of public debt is still likely. As Hamlet advises: If it be not now, yet it will come.