With Europe imploding and the US stagnating, one of the big concerns is whether emerging economies will continue to drive global growth as they have in recent years. Much depends on China. Thus there is constant focus on the risks facing it. Three areas stand out: avoiding a hard-landing; rebalancing the economy; and China’s institutional shortfalls.
Over the past year China’s economy, not immune to problems in the west, has cooled. The bulk of the cooling, though, is the result of a deliberate and successful policy to curb inflation. Now, with price rises low, the authorities are easing to avoid a hard landing.
The outlook for any economy depends on the interaction between the fundamentals, policy and confidence. China is fortunate to have plenty of room for policy manoeuvre.