How many oil industry authorities does it take to call the top of the market? Three, so far. Ali Naimi, Saudi Arabia’s oil minister, thinks oil at $120 is “unjustified” because supply fears are overdone. Opec says supply constraints are easing. And, weighing in yesterday, the International Energy Agency says that oil market fundamentals are turning as supply moves ahead of demand – though the shift has yet to translate into the price. Of course, one false move from Iran and this emerging consensus is moot. But what if the pundits are right?
需要多少位石油行业权威，才能形成市场见顶的判断？目前已有三个说话了。沙特石油部长阿里•纳伊米(Ali Naimi)认为，油价处于120美元是“不合理的”，因为人们对供应的担忧过度。石油输出国组织(Opec，简称欧佩克)称，供应约束正在缓解。昨日，国际能源署(IEA)称，石油市场基本面正在发生变化，供应超过需求，不过这一转变尚未体现到价格上来。当然，伊朗发动错误行动，这种新兴共识也尚未形成定论。但如果这些权威看法是正确的将会怎样呢？