Between 2007 and 2012, the Chinese economy will expand by close to 60 per cent. Emerging Asia as a whole will grow by almost 50 per cent. Over the same period, economies of high-income countries will grow by a mere 3 per cent. Who can doubt that the world is undergoing a profound transformation? The speed of convergence in incomes per head is driving extraordinary divergence in growth between incumbents and newcomers. Moreover, this has continued despite the weak growth of high-income countries discussed last week. Huge shocks, such as those of 2008, do affect the growth rates of emerging economies. The same would probably be true if the eurozone imploded. But the effect does not seem to last (see charts).
If we look at emerging economies’ growth in detail, we see that Asia is the most dynamic region, and the one least affected by the global crisis in 2008 and 2009. Sub-Saharan Africa came second to Asia, on both points. Latin America and central and eastern Europe were less dynamic and more vulnerable to adverse external shocks.