This time last year, the leaders of Egypt, Libya, Syria and even Tunisia had little reason to worry about their tenure. The aftermath of Mohamed Bouazizi’s self-immolation last December changed it all for the 120m people in those four countries and for many more beyond their borders. Tunisia, Egypt and Libya now have new leaders; Bashar al-Assad’s hold on power in Syria looks ever more tenuous. The decline of Arab autocracy promises to raise living standards and economic performance across the region. But it will take a while to deliver.
Even for those hoping that the Arab spring would eventually open up economies that foreign investors had previously found difficult to negotiate, it should not be a surprise that most revolutionary countries remain unstable. Between the beginning of the year and the height of Arab spring tensions, spreads on Egypt’s credit default swaps rose 85 per cent. Since then, with political tensions again on the rise in Cairo, they have widened by a further 40 per cent. Bahrain’s CDS, which almost doubled during its uprising, have jumped a further 8 per cent. Some Arab countries have resources to fall back on. Pre-revolutionary Libya produced about 3 per cent of the world’s oil. The uprising that ousted Muammer Gaddafi led to an almost complete shutdown, but the country’s National Oil Company now says production has regained about half its usual level. Investment will be needed to rebuild damaged infrastructure, but Libya should stabilise if it can find the right political leadership. The Arab revolutions are not over, despite talk of the onset of winter. Political and economic expectations are too high. Many 20th-century revolutions in Europe and Asia led to unintended results, such as new autocratic regimes or the disaster of communism. Investors should give the Arab spring more time.