So, Seoul is in a self-congratulatory (and slightly bellicose) mood. On Monday, the South Korean military held artillery drills in the disputed waters around the Yeonpyeong island, the target of the massive North Korean attack in November. They have held such exercises before, but this time the North Koreans claimed that the drills constituted an infringement of their sovereignty, so they would retaliate on a huge scale. They did not.
It seems that the majority opinion in Seoul is that North Koreans blinked when faced with determination and the willingness to use force – and few people doubt that the promised North Korean “retaliation”, if actually carried out, would trigger a colossal South Korean military response. So the South Korean decision-makers believe now that toughness worked, and the Seoul public, which has been unusually bellicose recently, largely shares this opinion.
But this seems to be a delusion. The North Korean leaders did not duck the fight this time because they were afraid. Rather, they did what a cold-minded tactician should do: they avoided an engagement under unfavourable conditions chosen by the opponent, in order to strike the opponent at the time and place of their own choice, suddenly and forcefully.