The US economy is officially rowing again. Indeed, the recession probably ended a few months ago, although it will be some time before the independent business cycle dating committee makes an official judgment.
The likely shape of the recovery, however, remains an open question, with the central uncertainty being how vigorously private demand will expand as government props for growth begin to fade.
Much rests on whether the beginnings of a recovery in consumer spending seen in the latest data – and so far financed by reduced savings – can be sustained.
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