If Russian president Vladimir Putin completely shuts off the gas taps to Europe, what are the risks of the lights going out — or the heating turning off — in the UK?
To listen to public statements from the government you could be forgiven for thinking the odds are exceptionally low: the UK has no direct connections to Russian pipelines; it has its own production in the North Sea plus significant supplies from reliable Norway; and there is ample capacity to import seaborne cargoes of liquefied natural gas when needed.
Homes should remain heated and electricity supplies secure, even if the price is exceptionally painful, is the official line. But the reality is more complicated and worrying.