Some industries can support multiple winners, such as mobile phone providers and supermarkets. Others, including internet search engines and AI microchips, seem to end up with one clear victor. Obesity drugs look likely to end up somewhere in between, with one maker standing far above the others.
The global market for obesity medications is still growing — by 85 per cent in 2025, according to drugmaker Novo Nordisk. But the spoils are set to accrue disproportionately to one of the companies involved. Eli Lilly, maker of Mounjaro and Zepbound, said on Wednesday that its revenue this year would rise by a quarter. Meanwhile Novo, of Ozempic and Wegovy fame, thinks its own will decline by between 5 and and 13 per cent. The market accordingly boosted Eli Lilly’s market value by a tenth, and cut Novo’s by almost a fifth.
