China’s obesity crisis is a sizeable profit opportunity. More than half of Chinese adults are overweight or obese — a figure expected to hit two-thirds by 2030. That is nearly 900mn people, a market far larger than the US, and one that pharmaceutical groups are rushing to dominate.
This is a boost for Novo Nordisk. The Danish drugmaker is already enjoying a global windfall from its blockbuster weight loss treatments. Revenue from the country rose 13 per cent last year to DKK18.5bn ($2.6bn), even though Wegovy was only launched in November 2024.
But this golden era may be shortlived. Novo Nordisk’s market dominance in China comes with an expiration date: March 20, 2026. That’s when the patent currently protecting semaglutide — the active ingredient in weight loss drugs like Ozempic and Wegovy — expires, and the doors open to a flood of local rivals. And they are more than ready.